Recently, the domestic PVC market atmosphere has improved, the export arbitrage window opened again, the main enterprises export orders increased significantly, the main delivery time is concentrated in September and October, with the coming peak season, September and October inventory further decreased expectations.
Since last week, the domestic PVC market has improved again, and the price has increased successively. The average price of SG-5 in East China has increased from RMB 9040 / ton on August 3 to about RMB 9280 / ton on August 12, with a total increase of RMB 240 / ton, or 2.65%. The futures V09 contract rose more than 500 yuan/ton during the same period.
Export orders increased injection of new impetus
On the one hand, the increase in the market price is due to the large number of pre-orders at the supply side, with little pressure; on the other hand, due to the low inventory in East and south China; on the other hand, the shortage of raw material calcium carbide, with high cost. However, these three supporting factors in the recent long-term existence, it is difficult to support the price rebound near the previous high. And the fundamental appearance of new changes is the export volume of orders to soar again, inject new impetus for the market.
Export factors in the first half of the inventory support reduction
Speaking of export factors, the support for the market in the first half of the year is still vividly in mind. According to customs data, the export volume from January to June was 1.102 million tons, up 856,000 tons year-on-year, up 348%. It is because of the large increase of export volume that PVC social inventory declined rapidly in the second quarter. Since late May, the inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China is about 50% lower than that of the same period in previous years.
From the middle of May, the domestic PVC export arbitrage window is closed, the export volume is still high in May and June, mainly due to the early delivery of the final order, the export volume in July is generally expected to significantly decline, export factors gradually fade out of the focus of the market. Since last week, the export window has been gradually opened, and further opened this week. This week, the fob export price of calcium carbide PVC is mainly us $1280-1300 / ton, and some higher prices have been heard. Take the price of US $1300 / ton as an example, the equivalent price in RMB is about 9400 yuan/ton, which is higher than the domestic market. Export orders increased significantly, once again caused the great concern of market participants.
Exports have surged in the last two weeks
Since last week, calcium carbide PVC enterprises have begun to export orders, and this week calcium carbide PVC enterprises export orders increased significantly, some ethylene enterprises follow the international market pricing, fixed exports every month. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhuochuang Information, at present, there are more than 10 domestic enterprises export orders, and the amount of undelivered export orders is more than 100,000 tons, mainly delivered in September and October, and some are still being delivered in August, among which 3-40% are mainly exported from the west, and 6-70% are mainly exported from the east.
Surging demand in India is the main reason
East the supply main destination is given priority to with India, southeast Asia, South America, southeast Asia’s recent buying intention is still not high, and the Indian market demand increased dramatically, abnormal supply shortage, in addition to South Korea, Japan and other export commodity co., LTD., so the supply of goods become the preferred, zhuo and understand that the recent east sign the bill to the Indian market demand in most exuberant.
Inventories are expected to be lower in September-October
On the one hand, the new production capacity of PVC industry this year is not large, the supplier pressure is limited, the pre-sale is more, and the demand resilience is strong. In the low season of PVC in July and August, the inventory of east China and south China market does not increase. As the weather turns cool, the PVC industry demand in September and October is expected to further improve, and the supply and demand will improve to some extent, and the social inventory will be expected to decrease. In addition, with the large increase of export orders recently, the export delivery volume in September and October will increase again to a certain extent, which will further enhance the expectation of the reduction of social inventory.