BOPP market reversal still pinned on demand
From the perspective of the current BOPP market, raw polypropylene is running weakly, and the cost-side support is limited; the short-term release expectations on the demand side are not strong, and there is a lack of demand support. BOPP will remain weak in the short term, and the market turning point will focus on changes in demand.
From the perspective of supply, according to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, some equipments of BOPP production enterprises were under maintenance and load reduction in the first ten days of August, but at the same time, the downstream start-up load in the region also decreased, and the impact of the maintenance loss on the BOPP market was relatively small; And according to the research of Zhuochuang Information, most BOPP enterprises currently have stock in stock, and the enthusiasm of downstream users to pick up the goods is still not high. On the whole, although the supply side of BOPP has shrunk, it is difficult to bring about a boost to the market.
From the perspective of demand, it is now in summer, with sudden high temperature weather in many places, downstream construction has been blocked, and demand in the packaging industry has stopped. And according to the historical data tracking of Zhuochuang Information, it is also in the off-season of BOPP market consumption, and its demand for short-term recovery is not expected to be strong. On the whole, the BOPP market demand will remain weak in the near future, and the short-term heavy volume may not be expected. The demand inflection point will focus on late August, and hope for the support of orders before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays.
From the perspective of cost (polypropylene), the domestic polypropylene market is likely to continue to weaken. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week, with limited support for polypropylene costs. On the supply side, since there are no maintenance devices in the short-term plan, and some devices are planned to be restarted, the supply is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, most downstream construction levels are still low, demand continues to be weak in the short term, and the market has great upward resistance. Based on this, it is expected that the domestic polypropylene market will continue to be weak in the short term.
On the whole, BOPP is likely to be weak in the short term, and the high-priced supply is expected to move closer to the low-end. The firm focuses on negotiation. It is difficult for the supply side to shrink the volume temporarily to boost the market; from the demand side, the terminal demand performance is not good, and the short-term increase may not be large; on the cost side, the raw material polypropylene has a high probability of weak operation. Both upstream and downstream lack strong support. Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that BOPP will maintain a weak short-term consolidation market, and the price of thick glossy film may be 9700-10100 yuan / ton.