BOPET: the third quarter fell after the rebound in the fourth quarter range adjustment probability

Price: BOPET most types of price shock decline, some “gold nine” rebound

The overall BOPET market in the third quarter of 2022 was weak, with slight differences between different specifications. East China PET printing film 12 μ “gold nine” drive, stop falling slightly rebound; East China PET hot stamping film 12-25 μ and Shandong 6 μ aluminum substrate prices fell after finishing.

Specific price, PET printing film 12 μ price in East China in July from the high 9460 yuan / ton to the year low 8360 yuan / ton, down 1100 yuan / ton, down 11.63%; August-September low rebound to 8685 yuan / ton, up 325 yuan / ton, or 3.89%. The price decline in July was mainly due to the increasing contradiction between supply and demand. From August to September, on the one hand, was the increase of negative profits and the bottom of the price support, on the other hand, the demand recovered compared with the previous period, and driven by the rise of raw materials. East China PET hot metal film 12-25 μ fell from 9800 yuan / ton to 8900 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton, down 9.18%. Shandong 6 μ aluminum substrate price fell from 13250 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton, down 2600 yuan / ton, down 19.62%. Both prices fell, mainly driven by rising supply and falling demand.

Going into October, Rising oil prices drive raw materials and BOPET prices, As of October 11th, East China PET printing film 12 μ negotiation transaction at 8560-8810 yuan / ton, More stable than in the previous trading day, 175 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month, 3175 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year; Negotiate the transaction of 20 μ -75 μ general thickness 8510-8710 yuan / ton; Near 10,000 yuan / ton from the type substrate; East China PET hot gold film 12-25 μ negotiation 9000 yuan / ton; Shandong 6 μ Aluminized substrate negotiation 10500-10800 yuan / ton; Prices rose after the transaction decreased. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the difference between supply and demand in BOPET market increased by 30,000 tons at 150,000 tons in July compared with June, decreased to 140,000 tons in August and 110,000 tons in September. In the third quarter, the difference between supply and demand increased first and then decreased in the third quarter, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slightly alleviated after increasing.

In 2022, the new BOPET market is concentrated in the first half of the year. In the early third quarter, the new production line has been fully mass-produced and some new production have been put into production, resulting in higher production than the same period last year. However, due to the serious compression of market profits, the spontaneous shutdown of production cuts in September increased, and the output decreased significantly compared with July to August, but it was still higher than the same period last year. Overall monthly production in the third quarter decreased from around 310,000 tons to around 280,000 tons, a total decrease of 30,000 tons. With BOPET ordinary film order days reflect demand changes, July orders in 6.5 days, at the low point of the year, in August the market rose by raw materials and “gold nine” atmosphere, demand has improved, order days also gradually increased to 12.5 days, a total of 6 days extended, but significantly lower than the level of the same period last year. In July, the supply was high, but the demand was the weakest in the year, the contradiction between supply and demand increased, and the price decline deepened; from August to September, the output affected by spontaneous shutdown decreased, the demand recovered, the contradiction between supply and demand was eased slightly, and the price rebounded partially, but due to the contradiction between supply and demand is still serious, and the rebound was limited. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, taking the PET printing film 12 μ in East China as an example, the profit level in the third quarter is gradually compressed. In July, the market could still maintain the profit and loss cost line, but after the rapid price decline in July, the profit in August was compressed to around negative 300 yuan / ton, and in September, the profit was compressed again, maintaining around negative 600 yuan / ton for most of the time. In the third quarter of 2022, the highest profit was 246 yuan / ton, and the lowest profit was negative 653 yuan / ton, with a total compression of 899 yuan / ton; the average profit was negative 308 yuan / ton, compared with the average profit of 110 yuan / ton, and compressed by 418 yuan / ton. Due to profit compression, enterprises in order to maintain normal processing and production, the price rise, but due to the contradiction between supply and demand, the increase is limited.